I hope this message finds you well and that you've so far been enjoying the onset of fall!

To those of you who celebrated Rosh Hashanah, Shanah Tovah, and G’mar Tov. May you and the ones you love have a prosperous, peaceful, and healthy new year!

 

As we welcome a new season and a fresh start, I thought it now timely to furnish you with a brief market update on the activity we’ve been seeing in New York City’s residential real estate market and the trends I’ve been observing both in my own business as well as in the market broadly.

In a nutshell: contract signings are up year-over-year, inventory is tight, and there's still optimism around the softening mortgage rates in spite of some volatility this week. All of that is fueling buyer activity which had been stalling, and creating an atmosphere of opportunity as the divide between buyers and sellers starts to narrow.

Activity is trending upward. Late September through November is historically a time when the market experiences an uptick in activity, and this year's fall market has arrived on the tail of a summer that closed significantly busier than last year’s, and most. According to The Real Deal, July and August saw a spectacular 43% increase year-over-year in signed contracts in Manhattan and Brooklyn, and that surge is continuing into the fall market.

According to weekly market data issued by Brown Harris Stevens, September this year saw a 25.24% increase in the number of contracts signed in Manhattan year-over-year with increases at almost every price point.


To those of you considering selling: buyers are out shopping and making purchases – now. Mortgage rates remain at some of their lowest levels this year, and more buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines are jumping in, hoping to seize the remaining price opportunity before the market strengthens which it is certain to as mortgage rates improve and the election falls behind us.

While supply peaked in June, the activity we saw over the summer and into September has thinned out inventory. As demand builds and supply tightens, activity can get competitive for good property at the right price – two of my exclusives received multiple offers this summer within the first week of hitting the market. There is consistently solid demand out there right now and supply hasn’t kept pace. Sellers – there are buyers awaiting you right now and little competition!

According to Brown Harris Stevens’ September Inventory Report, condo inventory is down 9% from last month and co-op inventory is down 13%. In Manhattan, our absorption rate has fallen to 6.2 months, the lowest level we’ve seen since January of this year.



For buyers: the floodgates haven’t opened just yet, but make no mistake that competition is building – that means negotiability and pricing this soft won’t stick around much longer. Prices rise because people are willing to bid more in a competitive marketplace, and for months now buyers who want/need to make a purchase have been waiting on the sidelines for mortgage rates to recede.

Some buyers have been delaying their purchase plans for quite some time and are now getting back out there and pulling triggers. After some end-of-summer volatility in the stock market, many are now motivated to pivot their investments into harder assets after months and months of strong returns. We are in a uniquely opportune place now – a tipping point is inevitable and demand will only stay pent up for so long before another surge, not unlike what we saw after the pandemic. There’s a chance to buy now and to buy well with less competition than you’ll likely face in the new year.

In summation, the data has so far been a breath of fresh air and there are excellent indications that we’re in store for a busy fall ripe with opportunity for buyers and sellers alike. Should you wish to discuss market activity and how you could use it to your advantage at this time, I hope you will think of me as your expert and that you won’t hesitate to call upon me for more information or with any other questions you may have.

All my best,