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Dear Friends,
As we move into mid-April, we’re diving deeper into the spring market which has so far been very active, both for me in my own business as well as in our market at large.
That said, the activity isn’t linear. The spring market kicked off with strong momentum, but recent headlines about tariffs and trade wars have rattled the stock market, creating an air of uncertainty. It’s still too early to measure exactly how this volatility will affect deal volume, but I thought a snapshot of where things stand now might be helpful—or at least interesting.
I have been hearing that some are halting their plans in response to the current economic/geo-political climate but I for one am actively working with a number of buyers who are submitting offers and doing deals without hesitation and at every price point. Even product types which have recently struggled most, namely coop apartments needing renovation, are suddenly trading, sometimes with sudden competitive interest. Just in the past two weeks I traded two coop apartments needing full renovations which had lingered on the market for one and two years respectively, the latter having received multiple bids. So while uncertainty exists, it tends to breed opportunity and there are people who are benefitting from that on both sides.
Why? I think it’s because inventory is lean and there is opportunity to buy low so buyers are considering product they resisted previously, and sellers who are concerned about where trade wars will take real estate values are happy to meet them where they are to sell now. In other words, doing deals now is opportune for buyers and sellers alike – buyers are getting great deals and sellers are happy to sell now before potential trade wars make it harder to sell.
New York City has always been a patchwork of micro-markets but in this climate that is truer than ever. Deal volume and property values are shaped by very specific factors, ie property type, price range, and specific location, and these factors dictate the amount of competition and the strength of property values. This market is extremely colorful – and the stock market swings are creating fresh opportunities. For some buyers this is going to be a great time to lock in an excellent deal, and for savvy sellers of in-demand property types this could be a perfect opportunity to trade and trade well.
As always, I have my finger on the pulse of the market. Please don’t ever hesitate to reach out to me with any thoughts, questions or needs, be they immediate or for continued information. For the following analyses I’ve pulled together data from Brown Harris Stevens’ First Quarter Residential Market Report and Contracts Signed Report as well as data from the Olshan Report which monitors the uppermost end of the market ($4M+). Should you wish to receive any of the reports referenced here, just let me know and I will send them to you with pleasure!
All my best,
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The strength of the market at the highest end pulled up Q1 figures, skewing our data somewhat but pointing to the overall strength of the market in Q1 2025 relative to Q1 2024.
- The average sale price increased 20% year-over-year to $2,246,783 from $1,872,847
- The median price rose 12% to $1,175,000 from $1,050,000
These gains were the product of a number of factors including:
- Mortgage rates fell about 1% between May and October 2024. This pulled a lot of buyers back into the market. The last three months of 2024 saw a sizable jump in deal volume with 20.44% more contracts signed year-over-year, November being the strongest month with a 32.30% jump in signed contracts.
- Sale volume was up 17% – there were 2,672 closings in Q1 2025 compared to 2,286 closings in Q1 2024 which was the lowest first quarter since 2009.
- The S&P posted a 23% return in 2024 and the Nasdaq jumped almost 30%. Those gains and a record $47.5 billion in Wall Street bonuses led to a big pickup in luxury sales compared to Q1 2024.
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Market activity surged at the end of 2024, contributing to the strength of these numbers in Q1 2025. That was mostly concentrated in the uppermost end of the market as sales year over year in Q1 2025 rose 21% for apartments over $5M, 63% for apartments over $10M and a 150% for apartments over $20M.
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While deal activity surged at the end of 2024, the first three months of 2025 show deal volume that remains stronger than that of the same period in 2024.
Apartments asking over $5M saw 39.06% more signed contracts year over year in February 2025 and 38.89% more contracts signed year over year in March 2025.
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Looking at how prices have moved between this year and last, the average new development price rose 11% to $3,433,811 in Q1 2025 from $3,089,293 in Q1 2024. The average price per square foot also jumped to $2,058 in Q1 2025 from $1,944 in Q1 2024.
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Buyers have been gobbling up new development property which have accounted for 16.17% of all contracts signed during the first three months of 2025. Demand is particularly strong in the Upper Luxury Segment (property asking $4M+). Last week (March 31 to April 6), 11 of the 27 contracts signed on properties asking $4M+ were in new developments and the week prior (March 24 to March 30) that number was 20 out of 45.
As more of new development product is absorbed, we can expect resale which had a great Q1 2025 to benefit as a result. The last three months of 2024 saw a 15.24% increase in deal volume for resale apartments in Manhattan. Accordingly, resale apartment sale prices in Q1 2025 averaged 21% higher than a year ago, up to $1,965,464 from $1,620,305.
It’s important here to repeat that this increase in average sale price was very much so driven by the surge of activity at the high end. The median resale price by comparison increased 9% to $1,035,000 in Q1 2025 from $952,000 in Q1 2024.
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Large apartments drove the gains. 3+ bedroom co-ops saw prices increase 21% to $4,137,286 in Q1 2025 from $3,268,593 in Q1 2024 and 3+ bedroom condos saw prices increase about 24% to $6,615,617 in Q1 2025 from $5,051,244 in Q1 2024.
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We are still seeing strong deal volume in resale which is up about 3.25% for the first three months of 2025 compared to the same period last year, but new development’s share of deal volume is growing, and as of March new developments represent 17.64% of all contracts signed.
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As touched upon throughout this report, the high end of our market has been very strong compared a year ago.
Over the last six months, there have been 29.46% more contracts signed on apartments asking more than $4M than during the same period last year. March 2025 saw a 19.53% year-over-year increase in deal volume, topped by the last week of March (March 24 to March 30) which saw 45 contracts signed, the largest week since December 13 to December 19, 2021 when 54 contracts were signed.
On average in 2025 so far, 28 contracts are being signed each week on property asking more than $4M compared to an average of 25 contracts for the same period last year.
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Condos continue to make up the majority of what’s trading, representing about 68.26% of all contracts signed on property asking more than $4M so far in 2025 compared to co-ops which account for about 20.40%.
While it’s possible the uncertainty we’ve seen surrounding the economy contributed to softer activity last week (March 31 to April 6), there were still 27 contracts signed which remains close to the weekly average in 2025 of 28 contracts, though we will all be watching over the next couple of weeks to see what follows!
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Overall activity has been fabulous, and our market has been showing some wonderful signs of momentum. Inventory remains lean throughout the market, and though some have adopted a “wait and see” approach in response to the headlines on the economy, many are also capitalizing on the uncertainty and creating opportunities. Buyers – if you’ve been on the sidelines, now is when you could leverage the environment to get your best deal. Sellers – if you have something people want, you may be able to ask a premium for it or trade it quickly to a hungry buyer. The market remains ripe with opportunity for all those looking to dive in! Whatever your needs may be, I hope that you continue to think of me as your expert and reach out to me at any time.
All my best,
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